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mirkwood
06-10-2009, 10:56 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5491424/Swine-flu-cases-in-Australia-could-force-WHO-to-declare-pandemic.html


Swine flu cases in Australia could force WHO to declare pandemic

The World Health Organization is "very, very close" to declaring an official swine flu pandemic, after a sharp spike in cases in several countries, including Australia.



By Bonnie Malkin in Sydney
Published: 4:22AM BST 10 Jun 2009

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01420/swine_1420610c.jpg Australia has recorded 1,211 cases of swine flu Photo: REUTERS


The WHO has so far left its six-level pandemic alert scale unchanged at phase five, signalling that a pandemic is "imminent." But a swift increase in cases in the southeastern Australian state of Victoria could prompt the organisation to declare its first pandemic in four decades.
The country has recorded 1,211 infections, with 1,011 in Victoria, the fourth highest number of infections in the world. Less than a month ago Australia had only a handful of cases of the H1N1 virus but its spread has been rapid.

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"We are getting very, very close," said Keiji Fukuda, WHO assistant director-general, noting that in Australia, there was now "a great deal of activity in Victoria at the community level."
Under the WHO's guidelines, one key criteria for declaring a pandemic would be established community spread in a country outside the first region in which the disease was initially reported, in this case, outside the Americas.
The UN health agency's guidelines had initially focused on the geographical criteria to justify a phase change. However, member states have called on the agency to take other elements, such as severity of the disease into account.
Mr Fukuda said that "by going to phase six, what this would mean is that the spread of the virus continues and activity has become established in at least two regions in the world.
"It doesn't mean that the severity of the situation has increased," he said.
Australia's swine flu outbreak has affected sports events as a national swimming competition was axed and rugby league's first case put fixtures in doubt. Major states such as New South Wales and South Australia have also placed seven-day quarantines on children - identified by the government as "superspreaders" - returning from trips to Victoria, in an attempt to halt the spread.
Alan Hampson, an Australian influenza expert, has said the virus had to capacity to infect 25 per cent of the population and kill up to 7,000 people. It would also cripple the country's public health care system, flooding hospitals with 200,000 infected patients, he warned.
"It must not be trivialised," he said. "This could make a real mess of the country for a good few weeks."
But when asked if the situation in Australia, where 1,211 cases of infections have been recorded, warranted a phase change, Mr Fukuda would only say that the world was "getting very, very close" to a pandemic.
"The declaration of phase changes... is not simply getting up in front of press cameras or making an announcement. It's really a way of preparing the world to deal with the situation," said Fukuda, adding that a "great deal of work has to be done."
"Right now we feel that the essential steps which should be taken are on the way," he said.
Giving an update on the swine flu situation throughout the world, Mr Fukuda said 26,563 infections including 140 deaths have been reported to the health agency from 73 countries.
Chinese state media said it now has 100 confirmed cases of swine flu, while Lebanon, Egypt and Italy each reported fresh infections